alisa
02-18 12:51 PM
I can only give examples from personal life. My personal examples lead me to believe that a lot of people, though aware of retrogression, are unaware of what it really means.
Six months ago, I thought that there was nobody opposing EB-based visa numbers. And I was pretty certain that my greencard would be handed to me in a few years.
Then I learnt about IV. And I learnt about the problems.
Then I tried to tell my friends about it at work. And the first reactions were 'Is the situation really that bad'?
So, there is definitely a huge group of people who don't know what retrogression really means, and how screwed they really are.
But again, these are personal examples. Maybe yours (people knowing about retrogression, and still not bothering about contributing/participating in IV) might have led you to a different conclusion.
I respect your opinion ...but I refuse to believe that people are ignorant...
Six months ago, I thought that there was nobody opposing EB-based visa numbers. And I was pretty certain that my greencard would be handed to me in a few years.
Then I learnt about IV. And I learnt about the problems.
Then I tried to tell my friends about it at work. And the first reactions were 'Is the situation really that bad'?
So, there is definitely a huge group of people who don't know what retrogression really means, and how screwed they really are.
But again, these are personal examples. Maybe yours (people knowing about retrogression, and still not bothering about contributing/participating in IV) might have led you to a different conclusion.
I respect your opinion ...but I refuse to believe that people are ignorant...
wallpaper Dodger Stadium
Rohan99
07-28 01:03 AM
One way to know the truth will be..
Inform immigration law enforcement authorities about next Amway meeting place and tell them that H1B visa holders are doing illegal work... I am sure we will have some extra visa numbers
Sure with dead bobhead braincells of yours, nobody expects your self image to be high enough. Its not for wimps wearing zippers to the side like you. If you are man enough come and talk to me, and will see who gets handcuffed.
Inform immigration law enforcement authorities about next Amway meeting place and tell them that H1B visa holders are doing illegal work... I am sure we will have some extra visa numbers
Sure with dead bobhead braincells of yours, nobody expects your self image to be high enough. Its not for wimps wearing zippers to the side like you. If you are man enough come and talk to me, and will see who gets handcuffed.
syzygy
09-23 02:41 AM
Hello,
I am using my hotmail email account to send emails and my real name. Is that what you mean by your own emails ? Or do you want us to send email from office / university email addresses?
Housing/economic crisis rather than economic crisis
Please send emails from your own emails so that we can know what staff members and their bosses think.
I am using my hotmail email account to send emails and my real name. Is that what you mean by your own emails ? Or do you want us to send email from office / university email addresses?
Housing/economic crisis rather than economic crisis
Please send emails from your own emails so that we can know what staff members and their bosses think.
2011 Los Angeles (California
Googler
02-16 02:37 PM
Suppose the admin fix to recapture 'lost' visas is a success. How many will India Eb2 get out of that ? May be 5000 ?
One really needs to know the number of India Eb2 applicants pending in each year ( of PD ) . If it iturns out , say , there are 25000 I-485 applications with PD up to year 2002, then ?!
Will a USCIS customer service rep be able to help us with this question :
"Sir/Madam how many India EB2 applicants are waiting , with PD earlier than mine ? " .
My friend, in 2003-2004 alone there were 136K EB greencards wasted. When recaptured, in the past they have been given to oversubscribed countries. That is almost an entire years supply of EB greencards.
As far as your last question goes: I'm amazed, given your interest in this subject, that you have not read the 2005-2006-2007 Ombudsmans reports which discusses in some detail how USCIS claims that it cannot provide data on pending applications by EB preference, country of chargeability, and PD. Do take some time to familiarize yourself with these reports (and read the damn footnotes.)
One really needs to know the number of India Eb2 applicants pending in each year ( of PD ) . If it iturns out , say , there are 25000 I-485 applications with PD up to year 2002, then ?!
Will a USCIS customer service rep be able to help us with this question :
"Sir/Madam how many India EB2 applicants are waiting , with PD earlier than mine ? " .
My friend, in 2003-2004 alone there were 136K EB greencards wasted. When recaptured, in the past they have been given to oversubscribed countries. That is almost an entire years supply of EB greencards.
As far as your last question goes: I'm amazed, given your interest in this subject, that you have not read the 2005-2006-2007 Ombudsmans reports which discusses in some detail how USCIS claims that it cannot provide data on pending applications by EB preference, country of chargeability, and PD. Do take some time to familiarize yourself with these reports (and read the damn footnotes.)
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jsb
06-01 09:48 AM
I think this is a requirement from US government that countries that need a SSA agreement with US needs to have a Social Security system. Asking our SSA and Medicare back is a good strategy which will benefit us one way or other....
.
With SSA agreements with other countries, money is not returned to you if/when you leave the US. Contributions you made for similar programs while working in other contries are collectively considered to decide your final benefit at retirement. Having no parallel plan in India it is difficult to have such an arrangment with them.
Stronger argument would be, why should a guest worker contribute to SSA/Medicare when those programs are for permanent residents/citizens hoping to retire in the US. It should be payable only after getting GC. Of course, in that case, your benefits at retirement would also be lower. Note that your employer also makes an equal contributions to these plans.
Most of you may already know but let me restate, if you work in the US for 10 yrs, you will get SSA at retirement, no matter if you have GC or not or where you live. There are some exceptions but they don't apply to India/China citizens living in their home countries.
.
With SSA agreements with other countries, money is not returned to you if/when you leave the US. Contributions you made for similar programs while working in other contries are collectively considered to decide your final benefit at retirement. Having no parallel plan in India it is difficult to have such an arrangment with them.
Stronger argument would be, why should a guest worker contribute to SSA/Medicare when those programs are for permanent residents/citizens hoping to retire in the US. It should be payable only after getting GC. Of course, in that case, your benefits at retirement would also be lower. Note that your employer also makes an equal contributions to these plans.
Most of you may already know but let me restate, if you work in the US for 10 yrs, you will get SSA at retirement, no matter if you have GC or not or where you live. There are some exceptions but they don't apply to India/China citizens living in their home countries.
Legal
07-25 09:06 PM
IMO, "MASSIVE" is a relative term. Even if there are 400,000 applicants and 45% of them are India and 60% of those are E2, the total is just 108,000. Not that bad if we look at the calculations and E2 numbers India gets this year and next year. I think it is sensible to say the actual number would be lower than 108K.
Having said that, before horizontal spill over, all these numbers (spill overs) were going to E3 ROW. Why is E3 ROW still severely retrogressed? Apart from calculations, I am attempting to do all reality checks. Is the volume of E3 ROW so heavy that around 50k + additional visas are not helping to bring E3 ROW to current. Read some where about amnesty causing this back log. Any one knows this for sure?
And this exaggerated estimation of 108,000 includes those with PD between 6/2/06 and 7/31/07. Since the cut off date for EB2-I was Apr 2004 in the June 07 bulletin, most with PD must have already applied before July 1st.
Forget the speculations, it looks like there are a few facts which are out in the open. Correct me if I'm wrong:
1. Minimum of 15,000-20,000 EB visas are available.
2. They have closed EB-3 quota.
3. At least 20,000 if not more FB spill over is available and has not been applied to this year's count.
Having said that, before horizontal spill over, all these numbers (spill overs) were going to E3 ROW. Why is E3 ROW still severely retrogressed? Apart from calculations, I am attempting to do all reality checks. Is the volume of E3 ROW so heavy that around 50k + additional visas are not helping to bring E3 ROW to current. Read some where about amnesty causing this back log. Any one knows this for sure?
And this exaggerated estimation of 108,000 includes those with PD between 6/2/06 and 7/31/07. Since the cut off date for EB2-I was Apr 2004 in the June 07 bulletin, most with PD must have already applied before July 1st.
Forget the speculations, it looks like there are a few facts which are out in the open. Correct me if I'm wrong:
1. Minimum of 15,000-20,000 EB visas are available.
2. They have closed EB-3 quota.
3. At least 20,000 if not more FB spill over is available and has not been applied to this year's count.
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Dyana
02-14 05:33 PM
Circus123 & Bestia thanks 4 the quik answers to my first post on this site; By now I just read & learned a lot from this site about GC process.Now it's time to take action because we have a PD current.
I just wanna be sure about the dates 'cause I cannot rely on my layer 100% because last year he insisted on completing our files 4 GC but he "forgot" 2 mention that our PD is nou current yet!!!
We'll send the cheques tomorrow!
I can hardly wait to get my EAD so I can apply 4 a decent job!!!!!!
Any idea if it takes longer than 90 days?
thanx all of U 4 your answers.
I just wanna be sure about the dates 'cause I cannot rely on my layer 100% because last year he insisted on completing our files 4 GC but he "forgot" 2 mention that our PD is nou current yet!!!
We'll send the cheques tomorrow!
I can hardly wait to get my EAD so I can apply 4 a decent job!!!!!!
Any idea if it takes longer than 90 days?
thanx all of U 4 your answers.
2010 will visit Dodger Stadium
ingegarcia
10-09 04:17 PM
I am another person of TN1 to GC.
TN1 can change job. Only thing you have to travel to nearest boarder with Two page TN1 petition, job offer letter, canadian citizen certificate, and educational credentials (you can also file to NSC but it will take few months to get approve).
TN1 has to be renew every years and it can be renew for indefinate time (not like 6 years for H1B).
As far as I know one who holds TN visa cannot apply for Green Card. :)
TN1 can change job. Only thing you have to travel to nearest boarder with Two page TN1 petition, job offer letter, canadian citizen certificate, and educational credentials (you can also file to NSC but it will take few months to get approve).
TN1 has to be renew every years and it can be renew for indefinate time (not like 6 years for H1B).
As far as I know one who holds TN visa cannot apply for Green Card. :)
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blueyonder
05-03 01:26 AM
[QUOTE=newtoearth;338494]Dear dreamworld I am an Indian (period)
I am who wants to see my fellow indians and country free from trrorism Either Islamic or Tamil or any other kind...
"I am Indian (Period)" this what all Srilankans posting in Indian or Public forum say.
Second ... Why do you call Tamil as terrorist, we do not have Tamil terrorism in India .... you have gotten everything wrong in your head .... we all are talking about Srilankan Tamil civilians not the LTTE. You better get it straight we are only talking about the humanitarian crisis faced by the Srilankan Tamils if you get it mixed up its your problem.
Pls refrain from posting any hate message about Tamils in this forum.
I am who wants to see my fellow indians and country free from trrorism Either Islamic or Tamil or any other kind...
"I am Indian (Period)" this what all Srilankans posting in Indian or Public forum say.
Second ... Why do you call Tamil as terrorist, we do not have Tamil terrorism in India .... you have gotten everything wrong in your head .... we all are talking about Srilankan Tamil civilians not the LTTE. You better get it straight we are only talking about the humanitarian crisis faced by the Srilankan Tamils if you get it mixed up its your problem.
Pls refrain from posting any hate message about Tamils in this forum.
hair Los Angeles Dodgers Jonathan
indyanguy
07-03 10:43 AM
My case details:
Visa on the passport up until Feb 2009
6 year term ending on Feb 2010
Date on I94 in passport is Feb 2010
I140/I485 concurrently applied on July 07
Currently have EB3 I-140 filed based on Substitute Labor at NSC.
Questions -
1. If my I-140 case gets picked up AFTER Feb 2009 (less than 365 days of H1 6 year term ending) and is denied (God forbid!), will I be eligible to file for a post 6 year H1 extension? Since this is Labor Sub, the labor doesn't have my name on it.
2. Can I file for a new EB2 PERM at that time and get an extension based on that (H1 6 year ending term < 365 days at that time)?
3. As a backup, can I apply for EB2 PERM NOW for a different position from the same company? How will it affect my pending EB3-140?
Thanks in advance
Visa on the passport up until Feb 2009
6 year term ending on Feb 2010
Date on I94 in passport is Feb 2010
I140/I485 concurrently applied on July 07
Currently have EB3 I-140 filed based on Substitute Labor at NSC.
Questions -
1. If my I-140 case gets picked up AFTER Feb 2009 (less than 365 days of H1 6 year term ending) and is denied (God forbid!), will I be eligible to file for a post 6 year H1 extension? Since this is Labor Sub, the labor doesn't have my name on it.
2. Can I file for a new EB2 PERM at that time and get an extension based on that (H1 6 year ending term < 365 days at that time)?
3. As a backup, can I apply for EB2 PERM NOW for a different position from the same company? How will it affect my pending EB3-140?
Thanks in advance
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rajsenthil
09-03 09:42 AM
It is sad to lose a leader who got elected democratically.
It was also sad that few people who could support SRK (does that related to our immigration issue :confused:) but comfortably felt that missing YSR is not as important as SRK.
It was also sad that few people who could support SRK (does that related to our immigration issue :confused:) but comfortably felt that missing YSR is not as important as SRK.
hot Former Los Angeles Dodger Don
logiclife
06-28 07:25 PM
can you name this firm please?
Also, anyone using Murthy/rajiv Khanna might want to ping them and get their thoughts on this. Dont know if it matters, consensus now is that dates can go back mid-month and USCIS can also stop accepting applications.
Like I said, after AILA's memo came out yesterday, all the lawyers who were saying "it wont happen" have suddenly flipped and now they are saying "Anything can happen".
Sometimes I wonder what are we paying them for if we have to send them URL from AILA about various memos and directives? Isnt it a part of job description to keep an eye out on what's going on at USCIS ? It is available on websites for the whole world to see after all. I wonder how efficient these lawyers were when Internet didnt exist and everything was thru phones and postal services.
And ever since the dates got current for the whole world in July, lawyers are snapping back when you email/call them as if its our fault that dates suddenly became current for the whole world ? If its too much burden, then maybe its time to look for some other profession. No one is putting a gun on your head saying : "Be an immigration lawyer".
Also, anyone using Murthy/rajiv Khanna might want to ping them and get their thoughts on this. Dont know if it matters, consensus now is that dates can go back mid-month and USCIS can also stop accepting applications.
Like I said, after AILA's memo came out yesterday, all the lawyers who were saying "it wont happen" have suddenly flipped and now they are saying "Anything can happen".
Sometimes I wonder what are we paying them for if we have to send them URL from AILA about various memos and directives? Isnt it a part of job description to keep an eye out on what's going on at USCIS ? It is available on websites for the whole world to see after all. I wonder how efficient these lawyers were when Internet didnt exist and everything was thru phones and postal services.
And ever since the dates got current for the whole world in July, lawyers are snapping back when you email/call them as if its our fault that dates suddenly became current for the whole world ? If its too much burden, then maybe its time to look for some other profession. No one is putting a gun on your head saying : "Be an immigration lawyer".
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venky321
01-14 12:25 AM
Is this Memorandom final?
If yes, then the options for them whose employer is consulting company and the employer is not direct vendor to the client are as follows:
1. If status is H1B, then join direct client of the employer or switch employer having projects with direct clients.
2. If maintaing H1B status and also have EAD, then switch to EAD ASAP because this Memorandom is for H1B (renewal/extension or Change).
Don't think working for the direct vendor will help. Read page 6 of the report; it will be hard even for the direct vendor to show control over the employee.
If yes, then the options for them whose employer is consulting company and the employer is not direct vendor to the client are as follows:
1. If status is H1B, then join direct client of the employer or switch employer having projects with direct clients.
2. If maintaing H1B status and also have EAD, then switch to EAD ASAP because this Memorandom is for H1B (renewal/extension or Change).
Don't think working for the direct vendor will help. Read page 6 of the report; it will be hard even for the direct vendor to show control over the employee.
tattoo Dodger Stadium Hosts A Job
kumarc123
07-29 11:08 AM
The argument that EB2-1 PD will retrogress to 2002 or 2004 does not seem to be based on numbers, but a random speculation. Doesn't not undermine vdlrao's projections in a credible way
Spillover may not be there, or may be there but when the new quota opens up October 1st, new minimum numbers will be available for EB2-I. Worst case scenario, dates will remain static or very minimal backward movement. It looks like the black hole is the time between late 2004 and early 2005, pre-PERM.Other than saying there is massive inventory of backlogged cases, Ron has not given better/ actual numbers of likely pending EB-2 I cases.
I agree with you, and believe me, all the white lawyers, none of them go the extra mile to calculate numbers. All they are concerned with is their fees.
I have a white lawyer and being a member in IV, I know more than she does. Her lack of knowledge does not undermine her credibility, but it is not her job to know the numbers, she presents her client's case to INS, from there its guess work.
I think Vldrao and other members are not too optimistic or blindly optimistic, they calculated numbers and analyzed the results.
Thanks
Spillover may not be there, or may be there but when the new quota opens up October 1st, new minimum numbers will be available for EB2-I. Worst case scenario, dates will remain static or very minimal backward movement. It looks like the black hole is the time between late 2004 and early 2005, pre-PERM.Other than saying there is massive inventory of backlogged cases, Ron has not given better/ actual numbers of likely pending EB-2 I cases.
I agree with you, and believe me, all the white lawyers, none of them go the extra mile to calculate numbers. All they are concerned with is their fees.
I have a white lawyer and being a member in IV, I know more than she does. Her lack of knowledge does not undermine her credibility, but it is not her job to know the numbers, she presents her client's case to INS, from there its guess work.
I think Vldrao and other members are not too optimistic or blindly optimistic, they calculated numbers and analyzed the results.
Thanks
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senthil1
06-11 10:50 PM
There were many compelling reasons for recapture bill on 1999-2000. Top 3 reasons were
1. Demand was very high and in some areas only less than 2 persons were available for 4 positions.
2. Outsourcing was very low. There is no other way than importing foreigners. Now even if demand increases many positions are going for outsourcing.
3.There were no AC21. So many people started leaving country after completion of 6 years H1b causing huge problems to companies and country.Companies could get recapture and AC21. Now atleast 80% of the H1b persons are willing to stay even 15 years without green card using ac21.
Now only green card aspirants are suffering due to deley in green card not the companies or country. But country and companies are using the H1b persons by just showing green card carrot but actually not giving it.
Dilip Dude,
As said before by unseenguy, your case is just plain LUCK, if there was no bill during 1999-2000 to recapture and increase GC quota, you would have been still struck in BEC counting days for GC,forget Citizenship. Just because you are over qualified(or under!) than others does not make you special or get you GC faster, you just had some good KARMA, thats it...
Anyways, your attitude of blaming others(h1/l1 etc.) for decrease in your quality of life is just plain STUPID and shows your maturity.
I wish you are not in a managerial position, I have seen many Desi managers like you who give hard time to fellow Desi folks working under them thinking they rule the world and they are the only qualified one who knows all.
My advice is wish good for others not bad, this will get you more good karma and maybe get your citizenship faster.. :-)
1. Demand was very high and in some areas only less than 2 persons were available for 4 positions.
2. Outsourcing was very low. There is no other way than importing foreigners. Now even if demand increases many positions are going for outsourcing.
3.There were no AC21. So many people started leaving country after completion of 6 years H1b causing huge problems to companies and country.Companies could get recapture and AC21. Now atleast 80% of the H1b persons are willing to stay even 15 years without green card using ac21.
Now only green card aspirants are suffering due to deley in green card not the companies or country. But country and companies are using the H1b persons by just showing green card carrot but actually not giving it.
Dilip Dude,
As said before by unseenguy, your case is just plain LUCK, if there was no bill during 1999-2000 to recapture and increase GC quota, you would have been still struck in BEC counting days for GC,forget Citizenship. Just because you are over qualified(or under!) than others does not make you special or get you GC faster, you just had some good KARMA, thats it...
Anyways, your attitude of blaming others(h1/l1 etc.) for decrease in your quality of life is just plain STUPID and shows your maturity.
I wish you are not in a managerial position, I have seen many Desi managers like you who give hard time to fellow Desi folks working under them thinking they rule the world and they are the only qualified one who knows all.
My advice is wish good for others not bad, this will get you more good karma and maybe get your citizenship faster.. :-)
dresses Houston Astros v Los Angeles
Macaca
06-26 09:22 PM
But they don't know how many of these could be approved by end of this fiscal year and they don't want to loose visas as they have in past.
This is the reason they made all date current.
I also think that the main (= only) reason for dates becoming become current is that USCIS did not want to loose GCs as last year. This is a simple way of avoiding the waste.
A reason for the timing is the release time of the ombudsman report. No one would know about wasted GSs without ombudsman report.
This is the reason they made all date current.
I also think that the main (= only) reason for dates becoming become current is that USCIS did not want to loose GCs as last year. This is a simple way of avoiding the waste.
A reason for the timing is the release time of the ombudsman report. No one would know about wasted GSs without ombudsman report.
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gcnotfiledyet
06-12 03:28 PM
You mean bureaucracy from Indian administration and also from US (since they both have to work together) - forget it man - it will never happen
I am glad you were not involved in nuclear deal that just happened against all odds. Can you even imagine US giving waiver exclusively for India, while during clinton years they opposed everything about India citing NPT?
I am glad you were not involved in nuclear deal that just happened against all odds. Can you even imagine US giving waiver exclusively for India, while during clinton years they opposed everything about India citing NPT?
girlfriend 2011 LA Dodgers Dodger Stadium
new2gc
09-04 01:53 PM
You dont even talk about my village even in your dreams.. Our village is much happier than before 5 years.. Its all becuase of YSR did for our village.
Looks like Your village might not have any resources to loot, so has shown some work which would have benefited few people (Like you).
As some other member mentioned that Jesus is angry on him, Not only Jesus, even Lord Venkateswara was also angry because even after converting to Christan, he took all the honors that chief of the state would get at Tirumala. Also, one can clearly see in Tirumala the way the whole administration behave during YSR regime compared to NTR/NCB regime. One can only experience, cannot explain..it will lengthy story...
His polices like, Govt money for Vatican trips and causing lot of grievence to the devotees in Tirumala should also be considered to evaluate his attitude, don't just go with TV news.
When Chiru campaigned for PPP, there were millions of people attended his meetings, but we all know what the result was.
So, just think like 1 corrupt politician down many left and move on. No more arguments.
Looks like Your village might not have any resources to loot, so has shown some work which would have benefited few people (Like you).
As some other member mentioned that Jesus is angry on him, Not only Jesus, even Lord Venkateswara was also angry because even after converting to Christan, he took all the honors that chief of the state would get at Tirumala. Also, one can clearly see in Tirumala the way the whole administration behave during YSR regime compared to NTR/NCB regime. One can only experience, cannot explain..it will lengthy story...
His polices like, Govt money for Vatican trips and causing lot of grievence to the devotees in Tirumala should also be considered to evaluate his attitude, don't just go with TV news.
When Chiru campaigned for PPP, there were millions of people attended his meetings, but we all know what the result was.
So, just think like 1 corrupt politician down many left and move on. No more arguments.
hairstyles Personalized Los Angeles
surabhi
07-17 11:45 AM
Is it accurate to say that new way of allocating spill over visas effectively acheive same effect as eliminiating country limits?
kumar1
07-10 10:34 PM
I forgot to mention something - If you have worked here for 7-8 years, do not go home till you complete 10 years and accumulate 40 points in Social Security System. Once you have 40 points accumulated, you are entitled to get your money after the age of 65. I have spent 7 years and I have 28 points in the system. May be that's why H1-B was only given 6 years, you pay Social Security, Medicare and get nothing but a thank you from both the systems. I will make sure that I get 40 points and then only I will make a move. And yes, whether you are Indian/Pakistani/Polish.......does not matter, you accumulate 40 points, you will get the benifit. If you do not believe me, go to http://www.ssa.gov/immigration/
Guys, let me know if you feel otherwise.
Guys, let me know if you feel otherwise.
conchshell
07-29 02:50 PM
Well, I think the scenario is different. It is somewhere inbetween those two thought processes:
1. They are counting on CP case; but not much. If you look in the past stats about EB cases processed via CP, it is usually a very small number (and this would just make sense: if you are doing EB green card, you will be working in US and will do AOS). CP cases can not be more than several hundreds.
2. The major hopes DOS has is on USCIS to process large number of cases. And they ARE capable of doing so; but only RANDOMLY (not in the order of PD or FIFO or anything like that). It is very unlikely that DOS will let USCIS waste any visa numbers. Because it is DOS's responsibility, not USCIS's. And that was main reasoning behind July Fiasco; where DOS wanted to prove that it is not DOS but USCIS who is responsible for the wastage (remember, there were some 60000 visa numbers unused at that time). This time, they are playing the game of "cooperation". DOS will advance dates only till USCIS can handle (not everything Current); and in exchange USCIS will use up all the numbers.
If USCIS can not show that they have used up at least 75% (or something in that range) of the remaining visa numbers (which are probably in the range predicted in this thread giver or take few thousands) by mid august, DOS will further advance dates in sept. If USCIS shows that they used up most of the numbers, dates may go back. It would not matter what the dates are in sept as the end result is the same: all the remaining visa numbers will be used (probably randomly) to people with PDs upto mid 2006.
I do not buy the "CP using numbers" theory from Ron or Murthy. It is all about allowing USCIS to use the numbers randomly and let them pick the "low hanging fruits" (as they usually like).
For the next fiscal year, they will move dates back to mid 2004 (just a wild guess), but I dont think it matters any way...(till the end of the fiscal year). USCIS will probably go in hibernation again till the last quarter of next year and the date will advance again dramatically (may be upto 2008) to let them use all the left over/spilled numbers.
I think that its a reasonable analysis.
1. They are counting on CP case; but not much. If you look in the past stats about EB cases processed via CP, it is usually a very small number (and this would just make sense: if you are doing EB green card, you will be working in US and will do AOS). CP cases can not be more than several hundreds.
2. The major hopes DOS has is on USCIS to process large number of cases. And they ARE capable of doing so; but only RANDOMLY (not in the order of PD or FIFO or anything like that). It is very unlikely that DOS will let USCIS waste any visa numbers. Because it is DOS's responsibility, not USCIS's. And that was main reasoning behind July Fiasco; where DOS wanted to prove that it is not DOS but USCIS who is responsible for the wastage (remember, there were some 60000 visa numbers unused at that time). This time, they are playing the game of "cooperation". DOS will advance dates only till USCIS can handle (not everything Current); and in exchange USCIS will use up all the numbers.
If USCIS can not show that they have used up at least 75% (or something in that range) of the remaining visa numbers (which are probably in the range predicted in this thread giver or take few thousands) by mid august, DOS will further advance dates in sept. If USCIS shows that they used up most of the numbers, dates may go back. It would not matter what the dates are in sept as the end result is the same: all the remaining visa numbers will be used (probably randomly) to people with PDs upto mid 2006.
I do not buy the "CP using numbers" theory from Ron or Murthy. It is all about allowing USCIS to use the numbers randomly and let them pick the "low hanging fruits" (as they usually like).
For the next fiscal year, they will move dates back to mid 2004 (just a wild guess), but I dont think it matters any way...(till the end of the fiscal year). USCIS will probably go in hibernation again till the last quarter of next year and the date will advance again dramatically (may be upto 2008) to let them use all the left over/spilled numbers.
I think that its a reasonable analysis.
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